What are my chances of getting into UCSB Or Davis?

overall good.it's not harvard or oxford. where you are applying.you do have a few short comings as you know,but overall you would seem to be competitive.they look at the overall person,and financial ability too institutions of learning are big business,so try to line tuition up,and keep trying,don't let anyone take your dreams away.if someone(college)slams the door in your face another school will open a window for you.you are strong and determined and well rounded and i hope they see that too.go for it